49ers news: Will Brock Purdy finish in the top 3 of MVP voting this year?

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Last season was a dream season for Brock Purdy after he endured an offseason full of rehab following a torn UCL against the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Championship Game. Even though the 49ers didn't draft Lombardi, Purdy had a magical run, finishing fourth in the NFL MVP voting behind teammate Christian McCaffrey, Dak Prescott and MVP winner Lamar Jackson.

In all 16 games, Purdy threw for 4,280 yards, 31 touchdowns and 11 interceptions before leading the 49ers to the Super Bowl after two comeback wins against Green Bay and Detroit, where they faced Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.

Analysts, speakers and pundits threw around unfounded narratives and accusations to describe Purdy's role in the offense, with many pointing to the 49ers' offensive weapons roster and Kyle Shanahan's system.

Fast forward to 2024, and the 49ers are committed to getting back to the big game and finally accomplishing their mission. But how did Purdy perform in the first four games of 2023, where he finished the season fourth in MVP voting, and the four weeks of 2024?

The obvious answer is that the 49ers were 4-0 in four games, defeating Pittsburgh, the Rams, the Giants and Arizona. The 49ers are 2-2 and are dealing with serious injuries to Christian McCaffrey, with Deebo Samuel and George Kittle each missing a game. Let’s not forget the contract saga between Brandon Aiyuk and Trent Williams.

Let's evaluate Purdy's first four games in 2023 and 2024 to answer the question: Do you think Brock Purdy will finish in the top three of MVP voting this year?

Purdy's Passing Numbers and Advanced Stats (2023)

81/112, 72.3 completion percentage, 1,019 passing yards, 9.1 YPA, 42 yards longest pass, 5 TD, 0 INT, 12 rushes, 24 yards, TD, 115.1 QB rating.

Pittsburgh finished the season as the sixth-best defense in points allowed, followed by the Rams at 16th, the Giants at 26th and the Cardinals at 31st. Week 4 was Purdy's best performance as he finished the game with a 20/21 completion percentage increased dramatically.

Taking a closer look at Purdy's advanced stats, the numbers are still impressive given Christian McCaffrey's outstanding season and the team's commitment to the run.

Over the course of four weeks, according to SIS Data Hub, Purdy's performance was as follows: 121 dropbacks, 4.5 TD%, 0 INT%, 79 throws on target, 94 catchable balls, 75.20% on target, 89, 5% catch rate, 552 completed air yards, 750 intended air yards, 54.1 air yards% (percentage of air yards of total passing yards), and an average throwing depth of 7.1.

Purdy didn't turn the football upside down for four weeks and was as efficient as ever. It's hard to improve over this four-game stretch.

Purdy's Passing Numbers and Advanced Stats (2024)

84/122, 68.9 completion percentage, 1,136 passing yards, 9.3 YPA, 53 yards longest pass, 5 TDs, 2 INT, 18 rushes, 75 yards, two lost fumbles and a QB rating of 105.1.

Purdy is second in the NFL to Geno Smith and leads in passing yards, but keep in mind the Avengers haven't been together for four weeks.

The 49ers' four opponents were the Jets, who are considered the fifth-best defense. Minnesota is the fourth-best defense, just ahead of the Jets. The Rams are at the bottom of the league with the second-to-last scoring defense, and the Patriots are the 17th-best scoring defense.

The advanced stats are mind-boggling given the lack of weapons and reliance on Purdy to pick up the slack for the offense.

Here are his four-week totals, according to SIS Data Hub: 146 dropbacks, 4.1 TD%, 1.6 INT%, 92 throws on target, 100 catchable balls, 77.3% on target, 84.0 catch rate, 801 completed air yards (1st in NFL) of 1,253 (1st) intended air yards, 70.5 air yards % (1st), 335 yards after catch, average throwing depth 10.3 (2nd behind Anthony Richardson).

Purdy's offensive production highlights four turnovers, but rushing production is part of the equation. The 49ers were forced to throw more while trailing in Minnesota, but given Aiyuk's return to form and Samuel and Kittle missing, the advanced stats are incredible.

The number of dropbacks has increased, which can lead to a loss of efficiency, but the term “check-down traders” is absurd. Purdy is constantly looking downfield, and yes, those throws aren't high percentage, but Purdy leads the NFL in completed and intended air yards.

Jauan Jennings is in the top five in receiving yards on the season. Jordan Mason has contributed admirably and is in the top five in rushing yards, but Purdy is the spark of the offense. Shanahan has more confidence than ever to put the game in Purdy's hands, with Purdy continuing to develop as a quarterback and increasing the base and ceiling of the offense.

Will Purdy continue to play at this level? There is an argument that the 49ers are not reaching their full potential on offense and still have room for growth. Given the adversity the 49ers will face in 2024, if Purdy can continue to perform like this and lead the 49ers back to the playoffs, there is no reason why Purdy can't finish in the top three in MVP voting .

I think Purdy is playing the best football of his career. Yes, that's a four-game sample size, but his tape is consistent with the passing and advanced numbers.

What do you think? Will Brock Purdy finish in the top three in the AP MVP voting this year?