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UFC 307 Preview: Has Kevin Holland's Grappling Improved Enough to Beat Roman Dolidze?

In 2020, Kevin Holland was all the rage. He capped off a strong year in which he fought several short-notice fights by dispatching an aging legend in Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza – from the bottom position. This tied the record for most wins in a year and set the record for most finishes in a single calendar year in UFC history. From then on, “Big Mouth” (official nickname “Trailblazer”) continued to be in great demand.

There were a few high-profile vigilante incidents in Holland that boosted his internet star even further, but 2021 disappointed fans who were looking forward to seeing the exciting loudmouth on the run; When he reached the rankings, he faltered. Derek Brunson and Marvin Vettori highlighted Kevin's ineptitude in wrestling, and he stated his intention to take a break from short-term matches until he could fix the problem.

Six months later he fought Kyle Daukaus, an unranked fighter known for his d'Arce chokes. Holland showed good takedown defense, albeit against a weaker fighter than Brunson and Vettori, before being knocked out by a head kick, making the fight a no contest.

Since then, Holland has only fought two real wrestling threats, Khamzat Chimaev and Michael Chiesa. Not only did Chimaev surprise Kevin with a takedown on glove contact in their fight, he is also a far better grappler than Vettori or Brunson. Chiesa is also a great grappler; He just has the unfortunate fatal flaw of constantly getting into d'Arce chokeholds, which was always one of Kevin's best chokeholds given his size and long arms.

So how good is Kevin Holland at defending takedowns? Honestly, I have no idea. Surprisingly, he's had more shot attempts at his opponents lately than vice versa, which makes sense considering he's fought Michael “Venom” Page, Jack Della Maddalena, and Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson, among others.

It's been two years since “Big Mouth” was last defeated in MMA, and with Kevin Holland that's a long, long time. He has fought six times since then, and not a single fighter has successfully shot him down.

So what do we know? Holland is a good grappler but thinks he's better than he is. He is more prone to manic arguments than technical displays. He has a good opportunistic submission game, but often goes for submission over position. He can spread out, but last time we checked he wasn't particularly good against wrestlers who could string together multiple shots or use the fence to take him down. But that was also two years ago; I mean, actually Chimaev only shot once, so it's been four and a half years since we've seen a large sample of kill attempts in Holland. Therein lies the curse of MMA analysis: small sample sizes.

But I digress. What we also know is that Roman Dolidze is an unusual grappler in MMA, as he has a grappling background in the Caucasus, but relies on leg locks, which is often a weakness of fighters from this region. However, Dolidze isn't just a submission hunter from behind. While he has good wrestling skills to get the fighter to the mat – nothing special – his true strength lies in his ability to chain submission attempts into scrambles and reversals. What he did to Jack Hermansson, an accomplished grappler in his own right, is the most prominent example, but he also stunned and injured wrestler Phil Hawes with an armbar before knocking him unconscious.

For such a clumsy striker, Dolidze also has excessive power. His unorthodoxy is a strength in some ways, but I find it hard to imagine that Kevin Holland will struggle because of it; “Trailblazer” thrives in chaotic attack battles where normal rules are thrown out the window, and he has a real granite chin for the damage he took against Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson without going down.

So let’s get back to the argument. As we said, Kevin Holland likes to climb, but this puts him right in Roman's wheelhouse, where the hairy Georgian knows exactly what he needs to do to achieve his favorite position. From there, I believe Dolidze can get a submission victory. It probably won't come directly from a leg attack, as Holland is a stubborn, tough martial artist, but Roman's ability to use this to take back the horse – or another dominant position from which to finish the fight – cannot be ignored become.

If Kevin stays balanced and focuses on a clear and direct game plan – keep his distance at all costs, spread out and escape, use his long tools to attack “the Caucasian” – then he has a good chance of winning this fight. But Holland has never shown so much focus, saying and showing time and time again that he cares more about making money and putting on fun fights than winning a UFC title. Roman may be a flawed fighter in his own way, but his strengths match Kevin Holland's historical fatal flaw too well for me to ignore.

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