California GOP Dean faces close rematch

Even at a time when violent crime is declining nationwide, Republicans continue to sharply criticize Democrats on the issue. But a former federal prosecutor campaigning in a purple district in Southern California is hitting back.

Democrat Will Rollins, running for a second time in California's 41st District against Republican Rep. Ken Calvert, is leaning heavily on his background as an assistant U.S. attorney prosecuting drug dealers, sex offenders, gang members and a Jan. 6 defendant. He has portrayed Calvert as a die-hard conservative with questionable ethics who is politically out of step with an increasingly diverse district.

Calvert, the longest-serving Republican in the California delegation, is an appropriator and has highlighted his ability to secure more than $1 billion in federal funding for projects in the district. He is currently chairman of the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee and a senior representative. His campaign denies corruption allegations, saying the allegations were investigated and dismissed years ago, and accuses Rollins of inflating his law enforcement credentials to win votes.

The race is one of several key campaigns in California that could determine which party controls the House. A poll released last week by researchers at the University of Southern California, California State University Long Beach and Cal Poly Pomona found the contest was literally dead, with each candidate supported by 46 percent of likely voters.

“This is one of the most exciting races in the state and the country,” said leading pollster Christian Grose, a political scientist at USC.

District boundaries

In one district, former President Donald Trump would have won by one percentage point in 2020 if the current boundaries had been in effect. The survey is a warning sign for Calvert, Grose said.

“It’s a district that leans a little bit Republican,” Grose said. A GOP politician as well-known as Calvert “probably should [be leading] by 3 or 4 points, but he's not.” The race is rated as Tilt Republican by Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales.

The 41st District includes most of Riverside County, including the rapidly growing suburbs of Corona and Lake Elsinore. Democrats say young families locked out of expensive housing markets in Los Angeles and Orange County are moving to the district and reshaping politics there.

But Republicans say the biggest driver of the changing partisan makeup was redistricting, which traded Republican-leaning communities for Palm Springs, a progressive enclave with one of the largest LGBTQ+ populations in the country. In 2022, the first election under the new map, Calvert won by about 11,000 votes — a fairly narrow margin for a politician accustomed to scoring double-digit victories in his nearly 32-year career in Congress.

In the final, decisive sprint to Election Day, Rollins leans on his message as a diehard Democrat. “It resonates across party lines,” he said in an interview.

“Most of us don’t want to defund the FBI because we want bank robberies and cartels investigated. “Most of us believe in our jury system, and it is dangerous to have people who undermine that,” Rollins added. “Moderate Republicans who once belonged to a law-and-order party are keenly aware that there are members of Congress willing to give Donald Trump a get-out-of-jail card for political reasons.”

Rollins is gay and has criticized Calvert's past opposition to LGBTQ+ civil rights, but the issue hasn't garnered the attention this year that it did when Calvert and Rollins first faced off in 2022.

Instead, Rollins focuses on his successes in prosecuting a drug trafficker linked to the Sinaloa crime cartel, a Los Angeles doctor who fraudulently sold painkillers, and an adjunct professor at UCLA who, among other things, worked on the illegal Export of semiconductor chips to China was involved.

He hopes this strategy will win over independents and even some Republicans who have grown tired of Trump's rhetoric. Democrats, Rollins said, “should be on the offensive when it comes to public safety, especially when the other side of the aisle is demonizing federal law enforcement officers.”

Rollins said he sees echoes of his campaign in the fight between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. “Having a prosecutor at the top of the list helps a former federal prosecutor get the vote in the election because the prosecutor versus criminal issue aligns very well with our issue,” Rollins said.

law and order

Calvert, who has supported Trump, has tried to turn the tables on Rollins by portraying him as an out-of-touch liberal in lockstep with Harris and California's Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom. An early ad from the Calvert campaign calls Rollins a “pro-criminal.”

“This race is a choice between someone who has consistently worked across party lines to achieve great things for Riverside County and an LA Liberal who will reinforce the failed policies of Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris,” Calvert told an E -Mail. “There is no one else who has the experience, relationships or proven track record that I bring to this district.”

Rollins is touting his support from the Palm Springs Police Officers Association, which endorsed Calvert two years ago. “Will was a federal prosecutor and he understands the dynamics of our job and how difficult it is,” Sgt. Michael Torres said in an interview. Torres appears alongside several colleagues in a new ad supporting Rollins.

However, Calvert was endorsed by more than half a dozen local and national law enforcement groups.

Additionally, Calvert's campaign claims that Rollins exaggerated his criminal justice experience and misled voters about Calvert's ethics.

“Will Rollins lied about being a counterterrorism lawyer, he lied about prosecuting the Sinaloa Cartel, and he lied about his extreme record as a prosecutor, so it's hardly surprising that he also lied about Ken Calvert lies,” said Calvin Moore, a spokesman for the Calvert campaign. “The Ethics Commission long ago rejected every single one of Rollins' lies, and it is a disgrace that Rollins has chosen to descend to this level of gutter politics to prop up his ridiculous campaign. However, when you consider that Rollins' agenda would raise gas prices, dismantle Prop 13 protections, allow criminals to go free, and open our borders, it's easy to understand why he would want to talk about something other than what he's actually doing in Congress would.”

In August, the group End Citizens United filed an ethics complaint against Calvert for failing to disclose ownership of certain properties, claiming that some of his earmarks could increase the value of those properties. He has faced similar questions in the past, but in 2007 the House Ethics Committee cleared Calvert of any possible wrongdoing.

Since there is a narrow partisan divide in the district, it is not surprising that each campaign has sought an advantage from voters of the other party. According to statistics collected last month by the California Secretary of State, registered Republicans made up 36.99 percent of the county's registered voters, while Democrats made up 36.28 percent of voters.

“Because of my experience, determination and willingness to work across party lines to address even the toughest issues, I can deliver results for Riverside County in Congress,” Calvert wrote on X last month.

One of Rollins' ads tells the story of his grandparents, conservative California Republicans who owned a business and idolized former California governor and President Ronald Reagan.

“I think it’s part of my philosophy to run in [a] “The purple seat is not intended to demonize all Republican voters because they are not monolithic,” Rollins said. “A lot of them have big problems with Ken Calvert. You have big problems with Donald Trump. They also have big problems with the Democratic Party, which I understand.”

But Republicans say Rollins' move to the center is a political ploy.

“Will Rollins is soft on crime and tough on deception,” said Ben Petersen, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee. He called Rollins “a Hollywood-style con artist who would say or do anything to cover up his extremely liberal stance.”