Could the US port strike be the 'October surprise' that trips up Kamala Harris? | Labor rights

Political observers in the United States have long talked about the “October Surprise,” which has the potential to upend the presidential race at the last second.

With 45,000 longshoremen striking at dozens of ports across the U.S., such a moment may have arrived.

The decision by the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) union to walk off its job on Tuesday threatens to unleash economic chaos just weeks after the November 5 vote.

Operations have been suspended at 36 ports on the East and Gulf Coasts from Texas to Maine, which together handle more than half of imports by sea.

While shoppers are unlikely to notice any immediate changes at checkout, a prolonged strike would wreak havoc on supply chains and lead to shortages and higher prices for consumers.

The goods most at risk range from seafood and bananas to clothing, electronics, cars and pharmaceuticals.

JPMorgan estimated ahead of the strike that a shutdown of East and Gulf Coast ports could cost the economy $5 billion a day.

ILA President Harold Daggett has warned that striking workers could “cripple” the economy if the union's demands for a 77 percent wage increase over six years and a halt to port automation projects are not met.

“There are no cars coming, no food, no clothes,” Daggett said in remarks broadcast on Fox News. “Do you know how many people rely on our jobs? Half the world.”

President Joe Biden, who calls himself the most pro-union leader in U.S. history, has expressed support for workers' demands and rejected calls to use the powers contained in the Taft-Hartley Act of 1947 to allow them to return forbidden to work.

All of this poses a potential threat to Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic Party nominee, just as she is gaining voters' trust on economic issues.

Recent polls have shown Harris, who is narrowly ahead in most polls of the race, closing the gap with former President Donald Trump on the question of who is best suited to handle the economy, long seen as one of the race's biggest vulnerabilities of the democrat.

One likely reason is that U.S. consumers, who have placed much of the blame for higher prices on Biden, are now feeling less pressure on their wallets.

After peaking at 9.1 percent in mid-2022, inflation fell to just 2.2 percent in August, the lowest level in more than three and a half years.

Last month, the Federal Reserve announced its first interest rate cut in four years, a strong signal that worries about rising prices have finally faded into the background.

A rise in prices just as voters go to the polls would shatter the impression that the economy has turned a corner under Democratic control.

Much of the risk for Harris would depend on whether voters see her as part of the incumbent government or as the candidate for change she is trying to portray to the public.

Harris is an unusual candidate considering she entered the race late after Biden withdrew in July, but there is some evidence that voters view her as a representative of the current administration.

In a New York Times/Siena poll released earlier this month, 55 percent of respondents said Harris represented “more of the same,” compared to 34 percent who said the same about Trump.

Inevitably, Trump wasted no time in tying the strike to Harris, blaming the walkout on “massive inflation caused by the Harris-Biden regime.”

“Everyone understands the longshoremen because they have been decimated by this inflation, just like everyone else in our country and beyond,” Trump told Fox News Digital shortly after the strike began.

Any attempt by Harris to distance himself from Biden during the strike would carry its own risks, not least angering union members who have traditionally voted Democratic.

These are voters Harris may be particularly reluctant to take for granted after the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, one of the country's largest unions, broke with its tradition of supporting Democrats last month by losing support for the first time in nearly three decades of a candidate has been rejected.

While there's no telling how the strike will affect the election results, the Harris campaign won't be happy about having to deal with such an upset in just five weeks.