Ted Cruz campaign update as forecaster shifts race toward Democrats

Texas Republican Sen. Ted Cruz's 2024 campaign was downgraded from “likely Republican” to “somewhat Republican” by the Cook Political Report on Tuesday.

Texans haven't sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1988, although Cruz's opponent, Democratic candidate Colin Allred, appears to be a worthy challenger. As Cook Political Report noted Tuesday, Allred outperformed Cruz by nearly $3 million in the second quarter of this year. Recent polls have also been less unfavorable for Cruz. In a poll released Sunday by Public Policy Polling/Clean and Prosperous America, the senator led Allred by just one percentage point (47 percent to 46 percent), within the poll's margin of error of 3.5 percent. In the same poll in August, Cruz had a two-point lead.

“We still believe this race remains tough for Allred and that winning those last few points in Texas will be a Herculean task,” the Cook Political Report said. “Republicans say they are now starting to ramp up Allred's negative endorsements and more money is pouring in, and a debate on October 15 will also be crucial.”

“But the competition is tighter than expected, as spending confirms, and Allred is raising plenty of money to keep the race competitive,” the report continued. “As such, it is moving toward Lean Republican.”

Newsweek Cruz's campaign emailed for comment Tuesday evening.

As Cook Political Report pointed out, in his re-election bid in 2018, Cruz was nearly upset by then-Democratic Rep. Beto O'Rourke, who lost by just 2.4 percentage points while running a grassroots campaign.

Since then, Democrats have gained new power against Cruz on the abortion issue. Texas currently has one of the most restrictive abortion laws after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned the ruling Roe v. Wade in June 2022. Cruz previously celebrated the fall of roe as a “massive victory” and has pushed anti-abortion legislation, including bills that would defund Planned Parenthood. Meanwhile, Allred called Texas abortion restrictions “extreme” and opposed repeal Roe.

Polling by the Texas Politics Project at the University of Austin finds that the majority of Texans support expanding legal access to abortion. Currently, Texas law restricts abortions unless the mother's life is at risk.

Another important issue for Texas voters is immigration, and most Americans have indicated they trust Republicans, not Democrats, to address their concerns on the issue. But as Cook Political Report noted, Allred has tried to stay ahead of Cruz on the issue by running ads attacking the senator for opposing the bipartisan border bill that failed to pass the higher House earlier this year Chamber of Congress was passed.

Meanwhile, Cruz's campaign has stepped up an ad featuring the mother of 12-year-old Jocelyn Nungaray, who was murdered by two men who entered the United States illegally over the summer. In the video ad, Nungaray's mother blames Allred and the Biden administration for her daughter's death.

Allred told KRIV in Houston last month that he was “offended by what Ted Cruz is doing in the ad,” “exploiting a tragedy to his political advantage when he helped prevent us from solving this problem.” and I can” “I don’t stress this enough.”