David Andrews, one of the best Patriots players of his generation, may have snapped his last football

Maddie Meyer. Getty Images.

I have a general rule when it comes to athlete injuries. One that applies to all sports. It is based on a lifetime of careful observation. It's the opposite of my rule for winter storm forecasts, where I take the low estimate and halve it. Since reports say 3 to 6 inches of snow is expected, I'm expecting an inch and a half. When it comes to injuries, it’s the other way around. Then I take the high estimate and add 50%. So if the initial reports say a man will be out for three to six weeks, I'm looking at nine weeks. Both have served me equally well and established my reputation as the handsome genius you know and love.

And yet there are times when even adding 50% to an estimate doesn't seem pessimistic enough. When David Andrews left the field on Sunday, it felt bad. Purely instinctively I felt this could be the end of the line for a man who could have retired at the end of last season. And whose return this year was a pleasant surprise. As it turns out, that gut feeling was correct:

I'm assuming that's true. Not just because Ian Rapoport has a solid track record of getting these things right. And not just because of my personal and mathematical approach to such things. But mostly because the Pats seem to be having such a year. Really, what a half decade they are living through. It's never been raining in Foxboro lately. It is the outpouring on the Old Testament level. Constant.

As for the question of whether this is the end of Andrews' career, I'll give up on it and wait for him to make it official. But it certainly looks like it will be. First, let’s dive into what this means for the 2024 Patriots. This is a team that can't do anything offensively because the O-line is such a piece of crap. The two things this unit had going for it were Michael Onwenu at right tackle and Andrews at center. Before leaving the San Francisco game after nine plays, Andrews had made every attack on offense. And I'll probably never take one again.

It didn't always go smoothly. With rookie Layden Robinson on his starboard side and a combination of Sidy Sow and Michael Jordan on his port side, Andrews has given up one sack and four hurries in 105 pass plays, with two penalties. Which is a lot for his standards. In his primary role, run blocking, his Pro Football Focus grade is only slightly higher than his rookie season, which remains the lowest of his career. Having a rotating collection of mostly ineffective linemates around him didn't help at all. But no matter who is to blame (>coughcoughcough

So this is just a devastating blow to a team that has already reached its destruction quota. And it blows. As in 2019, when Andrews had to miss the entire season due to blood clots in his lungs and Ted Karras stepped in at center, there will be a loss without him. Nick Leverett is next man up. He was a reserve player in Tampa Bay for two seasons. I missed all of last year. And even though I took over the majority of the center duties in the preseason, I didn't make any major mistakes as far as I can remember. The snapshots were all clean unless I'm forgetting something. And last week against the Niners there was no pressure:

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But there is only one David Andrews in this squad. Team captain. Member of the Two Ring Club. The rock around which the O-line has been built since 2015. And probably never again.

Good luck with the operation. But there wasn't much luck in this area. May it always be Shirtless O'Clock in the world of David Andrews: