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A new poll shows that Donald Trump is ahead on top economic issues

Donald Trump has lost his lead over Kamala Harris on the question of which candidate is best suited to combat inflation, while a smaller share of Americans believe the economy is getting worse, according to the Cook's latest Swing State Project poll Political Report shows.

The survey surveyed 2,941 voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin between September 19 and September 25 by BSG and GS Strategy Group. In a head-to-head contest, the study found Harris has a razor-thin 1-point lead over Trump, with 49 percent of the vote to the Republican candidate's 48 percent.

“Harris is ahead within margin of error in Arizona (+2), Michigan (+3), Nevada (+1), Pennsylvania (+1) and Wisconsin (+2). Trump is ahead 49% to 47%. in Georgia, and in North Carolina the two candidates are tied at 49%,” the poll says.

Trump got a big boost this week when a series of polls released Tuesday suggested he was on course for victory in the key swing states of Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia, although a poll in Michigan dropped him. According to Betfair, a leading bookmaker, Trump became the favorite to win the November election on Wednesday following the vice presidential debate between Sen. JD Vance and Gov. Tim Walz the night before.

According to the latest Cook Political Report poll, Trump is leading with 50 percent support in swing states compared to 45 percent for Harris on the question of which candidate would be best suited to handle the economy. This is the same number as the Cook Political Report's most recent swing state poll in August.

However, Trump's lead on which candidate would be best at dealing with inflation dwindled over the same period, with the two rivals each at 47 percent, according to the latest poll. In August, however, Trump was ahead on the issue by 6 points, receiving 48 percent support compared to 42 percent for Harris. About 60 percent of swing state voters said inflation was the part of the economy that “worries them most,” highlighting the importance of this shift.

Donald Trump
Former President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks at a news conference at the Discovery Center on October 1, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Trump has lost his lead with swing state voters, which…


Jim Vondruska/GETTY

More bad news for Trump, who has made tackling inflation one of his top campaign priorities, is that the share of swing-state voters who believe the economy is “getting worse” has fallen since May.

In the September survey, 46 percent of respondents said the economy was either getting better or staying the same, while 54 percent said it was getting worse. By contrast, Cook Political Report polls in swing states in August and May found that 57 percent and 62 percent of voters, respectively, thought inflation was getting worse.

The latest Cook Political Report said: “Today the gap between those who believe inflation is getting better or staying the same and those who believe it is getting worse is eight points – a 17-point decline in economic pessimism the last four months.”

“And while Trump wins by more than 50 points the 35% of voters who think the economy is getting 'a lot worse,' Harris holds his own with those who think inflation is getting 'a little worse.'” (42 % to …). 55% for Trump), putting Trump among the 46% of voters who believe inflation will get better or stay the same.”

Newsweek contacted representatives from the presidential campaigns of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris via email for comment.

A recent study by pollster Nate Silver found that 12 states have moved more toward Harris in the past month, while seven states have moved more toward Donald Trump.