Alabama vs. Vanderbilt score prediction by an experienced football model

SEC football begins this weekend in Music City, while Vanderbilt hosts No. 1 Alabama on Saturday in Week 6 of college football. Let's take a look at the latest prediction for the game from the expert model that picks winners.

Alabama shot to No. 1 in the rankings this week after a convincing home win over Georgia in which the offense jumped out to an early 28-0 lead before having to mount a comeback to halt the Bulldogs' rally, ranked 12th in the FBS . place in offense in the first month of the season.

Vandy started strong, beating Virginia Tech in the opener, but dropped a late decision to Georgia Southern and then missed a field goal after falling close at Missouri two weeks ago to go 2-2 and 0 in SEC play: 1, just 7 combined points away from being undefeated.

What do the experts say about this week's matchup?

Let's turn to the SP+ prediction model to preview how Alabama and Vanderbilt will fare in this game with an updated forecast.

As expected, the simulations suggest the Crimson Tide will defeat the Commodores.

SP+ predicts that Alabama will defeat Vanderbilt by a projected score of 42 to 19 and win the game by a projected 23.2 points.

The model gives the Tide a strong 93 percent chance of an outright win over Vanderbilt.

SP+ is a “pace- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustained and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 133-114-2 against the spread with a win ratio of 53.8.

According to FanDuel Sportsbook data, Alabama is a 22.5-point favorite against Vanderbilt.

FanDuel set the total score for the game at 55.5 points.

And the moneyline odds to win outright are -1800 for Alabama and +1000 for Vanderbilt.

If you use this prediction to bet on the game, you should…

Other analysis models also point to a convincing victory for the Crimson Tide.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to determine winners.

Alabama is projected to win the game in an overwhelming 92.1 percent of recent computer simulations.

That leaves Vanderbilt as the expected winner in the remaining 7.9 percent of Sims.

According to the model's latest projection, Alabama is projected to be 22.3 points better than Vanderbilt on the same field with the current makeup of both teams.

Alabama is second among SEC teams with a 91.1 percent chance of qualifying for the College Football Playoff and will win 11 games this season, according to FPI data.

This model gives Vanderbilt an overall win projection of 4.4 games and a 16.5 percent chance of a bowl game.

When: Sat., Oct. 5
Time: 3:15 p.m. central
TV: SEC Network

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The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

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