UFC 307 tips, odds and predictions

This article is part of our UFC Picks series.

The UFC travels to Salt Lake City, Utah on Saturday, October 5th for a solid UFC 307 pay-per-view card. The event features two titles on the line and the main event sees Alex Pereira attempting to defend his light heavyweight belt against Khalil Rountree.

Below I share my UFC 307 predictions, including my favorite picks, an underdog, a prop and a combination of two fighters. All UFC odds come from DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate at the time of publishing this article.

Weight class: women's bantamweight

Raquel Pennington (16-8) vs. Julianna Pena (10-5)

The co-main event of UFC 307 is for the women's bantamweight title. I'm backing Raquel Pennington to defend her belt for the first time against Julianna Pena.

Pena hasn't fought since July 2022 when she was dominated by Amanda Nunes and I don't think she deserves a title shot. Pena has not picked up a win over a fighter currently ranked, and she is also 3-3 with her last six fighters.

Pena is not an elite fighter, and while Pennington may not be either, she is the champion and very durable. Pennington should be able to keep this fight going and put Pena on his feet. Pena is the worse striker and doesn't throw enough volume, so I don't think she'll be able to do five heavy rounds like Pennington.

Ultimately, I think Pennington uses her volume and speed to get to a 49-46 decision here. In my opinion, Pennington should be well above -200.

UFC 307 bet: Raquel Pennington (-175)

Weight class: middleweight

Roman Dolidze (13-3) vs. Kevin Holland (26-11, 1 NC)

As an underdog at UFC 307, I choose Roman Dolidze, who surprisingly wins against Kevin Holland.

Holland is moving back to middleweight, which I don't like. Dolidze just fought at 205 pounds and is a big guy. He should have a size and strength advantage over Holland, which will be crucial as Dolidze looks to utilize his wrestling.

The way to beat Holland is to take him down and keep him there. Dolidze also has a good chin and should be able to take the shots from Holland. I don't trust Holland's takedown defense at this point, which makes it unlikely he'll let it pass. That's why I'm betting on Dolidze to be the underdog who can take the defeats and ultimately win.

UFC 307 bet: Roman Dolidze (+124)

Weight class: women's bantamweight

Kayla Harrison (17-1) vs. Ketlen Vieira (14-3)

On the main card of UFC 307, Kayla Harrison takes on Ketlen Vieira, and I like that Harrison wins her second UFC fight via stoppage.

Harrison had good reason to fight for the bantamweight title on this card. Harrison is a two-time Olympic gold medalist in judo and should have a strength and grappling advantage here. In Harrison's UFC debut we saw her defeat Holly Holm and I expect something similar here against Vieira.

Even though Vieira was done once, Harrison is a completely different animal, especially with her grappling. Harrison should be able to control Vieira on the mat and likely score a ground-and-pound TKO victory. But just to be on the safe side, just in case she gets a hold of her, I'm picking Harrison to win by stoppage.

UFC 307 bet: Kayla Harrison by KO/TKO/DQ/Submission (+110)

Weight classes: light heavyweight and welterweight

Ryan Spann (21-10) vs. Ovince Saint Preux (27-17)
Joaquin Buckley (19-6) vs. Stephen Thompson (17-7-1)

For my stint at UFC 307, I'm taking Ryan Spann and Joaquin Buckley to raise their hands on Saturday.

Spann takes on St. Preux, and that's a good spot for Spann to get back in the win column. Spann has lost three times in a row, but in his last fight he had success against Bogdan Guskov before getting caught. St. Preux doesn't have that kind of strength as I expect Spann to get a decision win by being the more active striker and landing the more damaging shots.

To wrap up the game, I pick Buckley to beat Stephen Thompson. Thompson was once a top welterweight, but unfortunately at the age of 41, he is no longer the same fighter. He's still a good striker with his karate style, but his takedown defense has been an issue and Buckley's strength and wrestling should dominate this fight.

Thompson will have a hard time getting rid of Buckley as I expect Buckley to use his wrestling to get a decision win here.

UFC 307 bet: Ryan Spann & Joaquin Buckley Parlay (+106)

The best UFC bets

Here's a roundup of my top UFC picks for this weekend's UFC 307 card.

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