Penn State vs. UCLA Score Prediction by an Expert Football Model

Big Ten football returns to the stage this weekend in a new-look conference matchup brought to us by realignment as No. 7 Penn State hosts UCLA in Week 6 of college football.

Penn State is coming off a comfortable win over Illinois in its Big Ten opener and features a strong defense that held the Illini to 59 yards rushing in the second half last week.

UCLA has done it: 1-3 overall, 0-2 in the Big Ten, ranks 128th in scoring, 133rd in rushing, 89th in passing performance and 105th in scoring -Defense.

What can we expect in this B1G matchup?

To do that, let's turn to the SP+ prediction model to preview how Penn State and UCLA will fare in this Week 6 college football game.

As expected, the simulations are heavily in favor of the Nittany Lions this week.

SP+ predicts Penn State will defeat UCLA by a projected score of 40-9 and win the game by an expected 31.8 points.

The model gives the Nittany Lions a nearly unanimous 98 percent chance of winning.

SP+ is a “pace- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustained and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 133-114-2 against the spread with a win ratio of 53.8.

According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Penn State is the 28-point favorite against UCLA.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds to win outright for Penn State at -4000 and for UCLA at +1800.

The overall score for the game is 46.5.

If you use this prediction to bet on the game, you should…

Other analysis models also suggest a big win for the Nittany Lions over the Bruins.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to determine winners.

Penn State is expected to win the game in 95.3 percent of the latest computer simulations.

That leaves UCLA as the expected winner in the remaining 4.7 percent of Sims.

According to the model's latest projection, Penn State is projected to perform 27.3 points better than UCLA on the same field.

Penn State ranks third among Big Ten teams with a 59.3 percent chance of making the College Football Playoff and will win 10.1 games this season, according to FPI data.

This model gives UCLA a win projection of just 2.9 games and a 2.6 percent chance of being bowl eligible.

When: Sat., Oct. 5
Time: 12pm Eastern
TV: Fox network

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The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

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