Democrats' expensive gamble in Texas – Newsweek

In an appearance at the National Press Club on September 26, Senator Gary Peters, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), said his party was making a “multimillion-dollar investment” in television advertising to win Senate elections in Texas and Florida.

Peters added that he is “very confident there will be more.” [money] is coming,” although in remarks recorded by local station Spectrum News he did not specify how much would be spent in the two traditionally Republican states.

The Democrats currently have a razor-thin majority in the Senate: 51 senators are close to the party compared to 49 to the Republicans.

But they are widely expected to lose a senator in November as West Virginia's Joe Manchin, an independent running with the Democrats who has developed a bipartisan appeal, is not running for re-election in a typically red state. Republicans also hope to unseat Democratic Sen. Jon Tester in Montana, a state that Donald Trump won by over 16 percentage points in 2020.

To compensate, Democrats are making significant efforts to unseat Republican Senators Ted Cruz of Texas and Rick Scott of Florida. Cruz, who narrowly won re-election in 2018 by less than three points, is seen as particularly vulnerable to a challenge from current House Democrat Colin Allred.

Polls have shown Cruz and Allred in a close race. A recent Morning Consult poll of 2,716 likely Texas voters conducted between Sept. 9 and Sept. 18 showed the Democrat narrowly ahead at 45 percent, while the Republican incumbent was at 44 percent.

A Public Policy Polling survey of 759 registered Texas voters conducted Sept. 25-26 showed Cruz leading Allred, 47 percent to 46 percent.

The Texas Senate race has raised about $97,440,144 through June 30, more than any other single race, according to an analysis by Open Secrets, a nonprofit that tracks the impact of money on American politics Senate election campaign. The group also found that $79,424,485 was spent on the Senate race in Texas, which is the third highest in the nation for Senate campaign spending. This includes $45,224,413 spent by Cruz and $27,403,500 spent by Allred.

Allred's team was asked to comment on the increased spending on TV advertising and referred to this Newsweek to a statement from his campaign manager Paige Hutchinson.

She said: “Ted Cruz is weaker and more vulnerable than ever because of his failure to secure the border, his extreme abortion ban that has put women at risk, his efforts to cut Social Security and Medicare, and because he always just took care of himself.” . On November 5th, Colin Allred will beat Ted Cruz and give Texas the lead we deserve.

Newsweek contacted the Cruz campaign via email outside regular business hours on Wednesday seeking comment.

Cruz has raised more money than Allred, but he has also been on the campaign trail longer, with incumbent senators running for re-election almost immediately after being sworn in.

Allred entered the race in May 2023, so his fundraising fell behind Cruz's lead. But Allred's candidacy has drawn significant Democratic donations to the race and has overtaken Cruz every quarter since he entered the race.

A rational move

In conversation with Newsweek, Joshua Blank, research director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin, argued that pouring resources into their efforts to unseat Cruz was a rational move for Democrats.

“The Texas election is fast approaching and with Trump and Cruz at the helm, Texas Republicans are relying on two candidates who won their previous elections here by 5.58 and 2.58 points, respectively,” he said.

“If Texas is really only plus-three to plus-five points Republican, it could well be one of the states where Democrats should spend money. It's just that because of Texas' size, it takes many millions of dollars to have even a marginal impact.

So said Dafydd Townley, an American political expert who teaches at the University of Portsmouth in the United Kingdom Newsweek Democrats have a plausible chance of securing their first Texas Senate seat since 1988.

He said: “The race between Cruz and Allred for the Senate has given Democrats hope that they can achieve victory in a state that has been dominated by the Republican Party in recent history.”

“For decades, hopes that Texas could be a 'purple' state, crucial to both congressional majorities and presidential elections, have faded with continued Republican victories. However, the margin of those victories has narrowed, and this Senate race really appears to be a real contest.”

Townley continued, “Cruz has been identified as a vulnerable target to retain his Senate seat. He was constantly on the defensive in his abortion campaign and his trip to Cancun during a winter storm in 2021.”

“Democrats' spending on their campaign in the state has caused the Cook Report to change its assessment of Texas from probably Republican to leaning Republican, a subtle but important change that has given Democrats hope of a first Senate victory in the state since 1988.”

Cruz came under fire after he spent a family vacation in Cancun, Mexico, in early 2021 amid a winter storm that left millions of Texans without power. The Texas senator later told local station KTRK-TV that he was “trying to be a father,” adding, “It was obviously a mistake and in hindsight I wouldn't have done it.”

“Bullish” Democrats

On Tuesday, the influential Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan group that analyzes U.S. elections, changed the Texas Senate race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican” in an attempt to improve Allred's chances.

Mark Shanahan, who teaches American politics at Britain's University of Surrey, said Newsweek that Democrats are likely to focus on Texas and Florida in anticipation of losing Senate seats elsewhere.

He said: “Democrats are optimistic that they can keep the White House and flip the House, but the Achilles heel of their governing plan is that they are currently on track to lose the Senate. They will.” Manchin losing his seat in West Virginia, Jon Tester staying in Montana seems a forlorn hope, and Sherrod Brown remaining in a too-close race in Ohio. So the party is looking for viable Senate seats and has landed with Rick Scott in Florida and Ted Cruz in Texas.

“Cruz is seen by many as yesterday’s man. He's well below Trump in the statewide polls, and his opponent, former NFL football star turned civil rights attorney Colin Allred, is the kind of young, telegenic politician likely to appeal to independents and the pale.” Red among the Republicans and is therefore worth a significant DSCC investment.

During his appearance at the National Press Club, Peters insisted that the Democratic emphasis on Texas and Florida would not come at the expense of Sen. Tester's defense in Montana.

He said: “There is no world where I won't be there until the end of the Montana race. Jon Tester will have everything he needs to win.”

But Philip Letsou, spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said Peters' comments were “essentially an admission by Chuck Schumer and the DSCC that Jon Tester, who is doing very poorly in the polls, looks like a lost cause.”

He added: “Allred and [former Florida Representative Debbie] Mucarsel-Powell is a bad fit for Florida and Texas, and voters will reject her.”