Louisville vs. SMU score prediction from an expert football model

ACC football returns to the field this weekend as No. 22 Louisville hosts SMU on Saturday in Week 6 of college football. So let's take a look at the latest predictions for the game.

Louisville suffered its first loss of the season and fell to 3-1 on the year after dropping a 7-point decision at Notre Dame, but is still averaging 40 points and nearly 300 passing yards per game.

SMU is 1-0 in ACC play, having beaten its last two opponents by a combined margin of 108-58, including a 42-16 victory over Florida State in which Kevin Jennings had a career-high 254 passing yards and Scored 3 touchdowns.

What do the experts say about this week's matchup?

To do this, let's turn to the SP+ prediction model to preview the SMU vs Louisville comparison in this game as well as an updated prediction.

So far, the simulations suggest that the Cardinals can survive at home against the Mustangs.

SP+ predicts that Louisville will defeat SMU by a projected score of 30-24 and win the game by an expected 5.7 points.

The model gives the Cardinals a 64 percent chance of an outright win.

SP+ is a “pace- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustained and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 133-114-2 against the spread with a win ratio of 53.8.

According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Louisville is a 7-point favorite against SMU.

FanDuel lists the total score for the game at 56.5 points.

And the moneyline odds for the overall win were set at -250 for Louisville and +210 for SMU.

If you use this prediction to bet on the game, you should…

Other analysis models also suggest that the Cardinals will beat the Mustangs this week.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to determine winners.

Louisville emerges as the projected winner of the game in most 67.3 percent of the computer's recent simulations.

That leaves SMU as the expected winner in the remaining 32.7 percent of Sims.

According to the model's latest projection, with both teams' current makeup, Louisville is projected to be 6.6 points better than SMU on the same field.

Louisville ranks third among ACC teams with a 21.7 percent chance of qualifying for the College Football Playoff and will win 8.4 games this season, according to FPI data.

This model gives SMU a total win projection of 8.9 games and a 13.3 percent chance of making the playoffs.

When: Sat., Oct. 5
Time: 12pm ET | 11am CT
TV: ESPN Network

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The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

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