Ole Miss vs. South Carolina score prediction by an experienced football model

SEC football returns this weekend and already No. 12 Ole Miss is under some pressure to get it right on Saturday in Week 6 of college football against South Carolina. Let's take a look at the latest predictions from the expert model that determines the winners.

Ole Miss plowed through its non-conference schedule, but its top-ranked offense was stymied in the SEC opener at home last week by Kentucky's defense, which then allowed a late touchdown and missed a tying field goal, leading to an 0-1 start Conference piece.

South Carolina expects to have a strong defense up front again this week against the Rebels, as it did against the UK team and again in a narrow loss to LSU a few weeks ago, and should have quarterback LaNorris Sellers after a Rehab injury back.

What do the experts think about this week's SEC matchup?

To do that, let's turn to the SP+ prediction model to preview how Ole Miss and South Carolina will fare on the same field in this Week 6 college football game.

As expected, the simulations are firmly on the side of the Rebels and not the Gamecocks.

SP+ predicts Ole Miss will defeat South Carolina by a projected score of 32 to 21 and win the game by an expected margin of 11.5 points.

The model gives the Rebels a strong 76 percent chance of an overall victory.

SP+ is a “pace- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustained and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 133-114-2 against the spread with a win ratio of 53.8.

According to FanDuel Sportsbook data, Ole Miss is a 9-point favorite against South Carolina.

FanDuel lists the total score for the game at 53.5 points.

And the moneyline odds for the overall win were -340 for Ole Miss and +270 for South Carolina.

If you use this prediction to bet on the game, you should…

Other analytical models also suggest that the rebels will win this week.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to determine winners.

Ole Miss is expected to win the game in most 75.3 percent of the computer's most recent simulations.

That leaves South Carolina as the expected winner in the other 24.7 percent of sims.

According to the model's latest projection, Ole Miss is expected to be 10.3 points better than South Carolina with the current makeup of both teams on the same field.

According to the latest spread consensus picks for the game, a slight majority of bets are leaning towards the Gamecocks.

About 60 percent of bettors expect South Carolina to keep the game within the 9-point line or completely upset the Rebels.

The other 40 percent of bets assume Ole Miss will win the game and cover the spread.

Ole Miss is fifth among SEC teams with a 40.9 percent chance of qualifying for the College Football Playoff and will win 9.3 games this season, according to FPI data.

This model gives South Carolina a total win projection of 6.5 games and a 76.6 percent chance of winning a bowl game.

When: Sat., Oct. 5
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET | 2:30 p.m. CT
TV: ESPN Network

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The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

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